Decentral Block Post

For the past twelve days, the price of Ether (ETH) has been trading in a narrow descending range. Surprisingly, not even the news of Binance and Changpeng "CZ" Zhao being sued by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) was enough to break the support level. 

The lawsuit, filed on March 27, claimed that Binance provided derivatives trading services to U.S.-based customers without first obtaining a derivatives license. Additionally, the US Securities and Exchange Commission served Coinbase with a Wells notice on March 22.

Even if traders saw no reason to reduce their Ether positions due to increased regulatory risk, Binance holds 35% of the open interest in Ether futures. Therefore, if traders are suddenly compelled to liquidate their positions or if there is a sudden reduction in liquidity after U.S. entities are effectively barred from Binance's markets, one should anticipate a significant impact on Ether derivatives markets.

One could point to the market's resiliency after BitMEX derivatives exchange lost its longtime market share advantage following a 30-minute outage in March 2020 during a Bitcoin crash. However, there is no way to predict the outcome of the regulators' case against Binance, so it would be naive to assume that there is a zero percent chance of a service interruption — even if it means clients can close positions and withdraw assets.

Instead of focusing solely on the ETH price, it is essential to closely monitor Ether derivatives to understand how professional traders will react.

Bitcoin mining stocks had a dull performance in March, with small moves here and there that followed BTC's price movement. While it is encouraging to see that most stocks held onto their impressive January gains, Bitcoin's price action will be crucial for the short-to-medium-term performance of these stocks.

Additionally, the expansion of the public Bitcoin mining sector in the U.S. continues as American miners reported one of the biggest ASIC imports in January 2023. The delivery of new machines and an increase in the BTC price led to a surge in the network's hashrate to new all-time highs. Miners' incomes, however, are subdued by the rising network difficulty.

Mining stocks are in wait-and-see mode

Despite Bitcoin’s recent 18% rally, subdued performances of most mining stocks can be attributed to the uncertainty around the sustainability of Bitcoin’s price rally and the increasing competition in the mining industry. The Hashrate Index, a proxy for Bitcoin mining stocks, increased 10% in March from 1,929 to 2,141 points.

The median monthly gain in the top ten mining stocks is 0.30%, with an average of 5.21%. Riot Platforms and Cipher Mining led the monthly gains across the sector with a 28.64% and 24.34% rise. CleanSpark, Inc. and Bitfarms Ltd. were the worst performers, with negative 6.52% and 5.79% moves.

The average Q1 2023 gains across the top ten Bitcoin mining stocks is 128%. These shares yielded the majority of their Q1 2023 gains in January. The following months, February and March, saw a muted performance from most mining company stocks.

Bitcoin (BTC) may have erased its Binance “FUD” losses, but popular traders are anything but bullish.

Despite gaining up to 7.5% versus its March 28 lows, BTC/USD is causing more suspicion than excitement with its return to local highs.

$30,000 stays breaker for bullish sentiment flip

In a move that echoes its reactions to previous news events, such as the Silicon Valley Bank demise, Bitcoin has recovered snap losses in record time.

On March 29, BTC price action hit $28,650 on Bitstamp — just $200 off new nine-month highs.

Unlike before, however, the mood among market participants is distinctly risk-off under current conditions.

XRP (XRP) outperformed its top-ranking crypto rivals over the past 24 hours while reaching its highest price in 10 months. 

XRP price tags 10-month high

On March 29, XRP’s price surged by nearly 15% to $0.58, its highest level in 10 months, outperforming Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) in the past 24 hours, which rose around 4.5% and 2.75%, respectively.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission referred to Bitcoin, Ether and Litecoin (LTC) as “commodities” in its court filing against Binance. While the United States regulatory body didn’t name XRP, many assumed the token would be categorized as a commodity.

Related: Here’s why CFTC suing Binance is a bigger deal than an SEC enforcement

The SEC v. Ripple lawsuit will have likely concluded by the end of March, with legal experts believing Ripple can win. XRP’s price has rallied 45% month-to-date on similar hopes, including the March 29 price rally, supplemented further by investors’ optimistic interpretation of the CFTC court filing.

The price of Arbitrum (ARB) has dropped by nearly 20% a week after establishing its record high at $1.60 on March 23. However, the Ethereum layer-2 token looks set to resume its uptrend in the coming weeks.

Polygon price fractal

The cues for a bullish Arbitrum token could be traced back to its Ethereum L2 rival Polygon's market debut.

MATIC started trading on Binance on April 26, 2019, at $0.0026 per token. MATIC/USD rallied nearly 300% to reach $0.0105 on the same day before wiping out 70% of those gains in a market correction by May 9, 2019.

It regained its upside momentum afterward, rallying by nearly 1,350% to $0.045 on May 21, 2019.  

The price trajectory reflects a recurring phenomenon involving the launch of digital tokens with seemingly strong fundamental backing, according to independent market analyst Mac.

Bitcoin (BTC) returned to $28,000 on March 29 as a classic short squeeze took the market to five-day highs.

BTC liquidations mount as Bitcoin reverses Binance dip

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD hitting $28,159 on Bitstamp.

The abrupt uptick came courtesy of exchanges, where a band of shorts was “blown out” to remove resistance and allow higher levels to return.

As noted by the analyst, Skew, these shorts were left over from Bitcoin’s prior moves and were worth around 1,500 BTC.

“Looks like the previous bounce was shorted heavily & those shorts just got blown out,” part of the accompanying commentary stated.

The price of Bitcoin (BTC) fell 3.6% to $26,900 after Binance and CEO Changpeng "CZ" Zhao were sued by the United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on March 27. To date, Binance has been investigated by the CFTC, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the Internal Revenue Service and federal prosecutors.

The Bitcoin price correction may have been limited due to Silicon Valley bank’s successful asset sale to First Citizens BancShares at a $16.5 billion discount, which received an extraordinary credit line from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) to compensate for potential future losses.

Oil prices also increased by 5% on March 27 after Russian President Vladimir Putin escalated geopolitical tensions in Europe. According to Yahoo!Finance, Russia plans to station tactical nuclear weapons in neighboring Belarus, in a move designed to intimidate the opposing countries over its support for Ukraine.

Further tension from the crypto industry arose after a U.S. Federal Judge decided to temporarily halt the proposed sale of Voyager Digital to Binance.US. on March 27. Judge Jennifer Rearden of the U.S. District Court in New York granted the request for an emergency stay.

Let's examine Bitcoin derivatives metrics to determine the current market position of professional traders.

Bitcoin (BTC) faces a choice between two key levels as part of a “macro trend defining range,” analysis says.

In a Twitter survey on March 27, monitoring resource Material Indicators said that BTC price action was now in a critical trading zone.

Market giving clues that "big move is coming"

Bitcoin has managed to hold out against a new wave of negative news involving largest global exchange Binance.

While commentators argue that the fallout from United States regulatory action against Binance US may be limited, concerns nonetheless remain that BTC/USD will fail to continue its upward momentum.

With a key monthly close coming, Material Indicators identified two important levels for bulls to protect and overcome, respectively.

Bitcoin (BTC) attempted to rescue $27,000 support on March 28 as the dust settled on United States regulatory action against the Binance cryptocurrency exchange.

Binance CEO dismisses “disappointing” complaint

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD repeatedly testing the $27,000 mark overnight.

The pair had seen downward volatility the day prior as news hit that Binance was at the center of a civil complaint by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The move unsettled markets, with commentators well aware of crypto firms previously targeted by authorities in the wake of the FTX debacle.

In a dedicated response to the complaint, Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao dismissed the accusations.

After gaining 11% between March 16 and March 18, the total crypto market capitalization has been battling resistance at the $1.2 trillion level. This same level was reached on August 14, 2022 and was followed by a 19.7% decline to $960 billion over the next two weeks. During the lateralization period between March 20 and March 27, Bitcoin (BTC) gained 0.3% while Ether (ETH) posted modest gains of 1.6%.

One source of favorable short-term momentum is a change in the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. The U.S. Federal Reserve was forced to increase its balance sheet by $393 billion between March 9 and March 23 in order to provide short-term loans to failing banks. The objective of the plan was to reduce inflation, which has significantly impacted the cost of living and ultimately hampered economic expansion in the United States.

The balance sheet reduction runs counter to the central bank’s previous nine-month trend of offloading some of its debt instruments, exchange-traded funds and mortgage-backed securities. The reversion of this strategy is initially bullish for risk assets because the Fed is acting as a lifeline for struggling banks and hedge funds.

On the other hand, the sector’s regulatory risks were exacerbated on March 22 when Coinbase received a Wells notice from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The exchange’s staking program, some of its digital asset listings and its wallet services could all be targeted by the regulator. Again, the uncertainty stems from not knowing which assets qualify as securities.

These competing forces may have been the primary reason for cryptocurrencies’ narrow trading range near $1.18 trillion between March 17 and March 27. However, derivatives data presents compelling arguments for a rally toward $1.35 trillion and a retest of the $1 trillion threshold.

XRP (XRP) price is currently outperforming all other major cryptocurrencies as of March 27, rising over 20% in the past seven days.

XRP accumulation ahead of SEC vs. Ripple ruling

XRP has seen steady gains over the past seven days as the ongoing legal quandary between Ripple and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is expected to conclude by the end of March.

Meanwhile, the supply of XRP held by addresses with a balance between 10 million and 100 million tokens has risen by over 1% since February. That coincides with a 0.75% drop in the XRP supply held by the 1 million-10 million address cohort.

The addresses holding between 1,000 and 1 million XRP also increased their token holdings in the same period. That shows the XRP whales stacked up more tokens in the days leading up to the ruling on SEC vs. Ripple's so-called summary judgment.

Multiple observers, including legal expert John Deaton, see Ripple winning the case, arguing that the SEC may have failed to give the company a "fair notice" before suing it for committing securities fraud. 

Bitcoin (BTC) enters the last week of March in uncertain territory as a strong weekly close still keeps $30,000 out of reach.

The largest cryptocurrency has sealed seven days of practically flat performance despite some volatility in between as the market seeks fresh direction. Where could it go next?

In what was a week of more surprises from the macroeconomy, BTC/USD spent much time reacting to decisions from the United States Federal Reserve and associated commentary.

Next up, however, is a period of relative calm, followed by a key monthly close, which analysis says could see the start of a new bullish trend.

Bitcoin is currently up 20% for March, meaning that the coming days will decide the strength of the ongoing recovery from multi-year lows.

The recent banking crisis in the United States seems to have shaken the belief of some customers in the legacy banking system. According to Federal Reserve data, customers pulled nearly $100 billion in deposits in the week ending March 15.

American venture capital investor and entrepreneur Tim Draper said in a March 25 report that “founders need to consider a more diversified cash management approach” due to the over-regulation of banks and micromanagement by the government. As part of a contingency plan, Draper suggested businesses keep “ at least 6 months of short-term cash in each of two banks, one local bank and one global bank, and at least two payrolls worth of cash in Bitcoin (BTC) or other cryptocurrencies.”

The move from the traditional banking system to cryptocurrencies may have already started as seen from the strong showing of Bitcoin in the past few days. Even after the recent up-move, investors do not seem to be hurrying to book profits in Bitcoin. However, the same cannot be said about most altcoins as they have witnessed a minor pullback.

In the short term, traders need to be selective of the cryptocurrencies to trade. Let’s study the charts of Bitcoin and select altcoins which may start the next leg of the up-move.

Bitcoin price analysis

Bitcoin has been hovering around the $28,000 level for the past few days. A consolidation after a strong rally is a positive sign as it shows that traders are holding on to their position, expecting a further up-move.

Bitcoin (BTC) has a matter of days to go before beginning a new macro uptrend, the latest analysis says.

In his latest Twitter activity, popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital flagged a key monthly close in the making for BTC/USD.

BTC price action closely mimics past cycles

Despite facing problems flipping $28,000 to support, BTC price action is firmly on the way to abandoning its bear market.

That is according to Rekt Capital, who on March 26 presented an optimistic picture of how BTC/USD would likely finish the month.

The pair's recent gains have put it above a macro downtrend in place since its 2021 all-time highs, but the March close would be the first potential candle to complete above that trend line on monthly timeframes.

Bitcoin (BTC) drifted lower on March 25 as eerily calm conditions saw liquidations evaporate.

Bitcoin in "slow chop" until Monday

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView followed BTC/USD as it focused on $27,500 at the time of writing.

After losing $28,000 the day prior, weekend trading offered little by way of its usual volatility as traders hoped for a break before resumption of TradFi markets.

“Looking like a slow chop around the CME close price so far,” Daan Crypto Trades wrote in part of Twitter commentary.

“Not expecting too much to happen with BTC during the weekend after last week's volatility.”

On March 23, Bitcoin (BTC) price recovered the $28,000 support after a brief correction below $27,000. The movement closely tracked the traditional financial sector, particularly the tech-heavy Nasdaq Index, which gained 2.1% as Bitcoin surpassed the $28,000 threshold.

On March 22, the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate by 0.25% but hinted that it is nearing its maximum level for 2023. In the end, however, Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that it is too soon to determine the extent of the tighter credit conditions, so monetary policy will remain flexible.

Initially, it appears encouraging that the central bank is less inclined to increase the cost of money. However, global economies are exhibiting signs of stress. For instance, consumer confidence in the euro area decreased by 19.2% in March, reversing five consecutive months of gains and defying economists’ predictions of an improvement.

The recession is still putting pressure on companies’ profits and leading to layoffs. For example, on March 23, professional services company Accenture said it would end the contracts of 19,000 workers over the next 18 months. On March 22, the company Indeed, which helps people find jobs, let go of 2,200 workers, or 15% of its staff.

The stronger the correlation to traditional markets, the less likely a decoupling. As a result, according to futures and margin markets, the Bitcoin price increase has not instilled much confidence in professional traders.