Decentral Block Post

The United States Federal Reserve began its most aggressive quantitative tightening efforts in March 2022, raising benchmark interest rates in the year since from near-zero to 4.75% to 5% annually. While the central bank has successfully brought down inflation to some degree, the increasing interest rates are starting to cause cracks in the global banking industry.

The market expects the Fed to end quantitative tightening and provide favorable liquidity conditions to avoid a global financial crisis as the banks begin to fail. The shift in the Fed’s policy should have significant implications for financial assets.

Jurrien Timmer, the director of global macro at Fidelity, discussed the likely impact of the Fed’s dovish pivot on stocks, gold and Bitcoin.

Market expects the Fed to put an end to interest rate hikes

The Fed is largely expected to either maintain the interest rates at current levels or start cutting rates. CME’s FedWatch Tool shows that the market is currently placing a 50% chance that the March 25 basis point hike was the last one for a while.

If the Fed stops its rate hikes, risk assets like equities can experience a positive rally based on historical data. The average one-year return in the S&P 500 index after the last rate hike since 1984 has been 18.9%.

Bitcoin (BTC) stayed tightly rangebound at the April 3 Wall Street open as analysts counted down to volatility.

“Watch for rugs” on BTC

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView followed BTC/USD as it lingered around $28,000 on Bitstamp.

The weekend had finished on an erratic note as news of an OPEC+ oil production cut sent crypto tumbling before a rebound during the Asia trading session.

Amid a lack of clear direction, monitoring resource Material Indicators flagged significant liquidity on either side of spot price on the Binance order book.

“We still don’t have a confirmed breakout or breakdown, only rejected attempts which have kept price chopping in this range,” part of fresh Twitter commentary added.

Bitcoin (BTC) starts a new week in volatile territory, with news of an oil supply cut delivering a choppy start.

Still caught at major historical resistance, BTC/USD delivered an unappetizing weekly close on news of oil production cuts.

A subsequent rebound may show bulls’ mettle, but the question for analysts is what happens next. Will oil prices dictate market moves or can Bitcoin break through $30,000?

Under the hood, the picture is as rosy as ever, with network fundamentals due to hit new all-time highs this week while dormant supply is also increasing.

Cointelegraph looks at Bitcoin markets as the world digests the latest move from The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries plus 10 other oil-exporting countries (Opec+).

The market witnessed a major banking crisis in March as Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank failed and Silvergate Bank entered liquidation as a result of dire financial distress. In Europe, the government brokered a forced takeover of Credit Suisse by UBS. Still, the United States equities markets and the European stock markets closed the month on a positive note.

The cryptocurrency market was also shaken by volatility, but Bitcoin (BTC) gained about 23% in March. Going forward, the picture looks encouraging for Bitcoin bulls in April and data from Coinglass suggests that the month has largely favored the buyers.

Although altcoins reacted positively to Bitcoin’s rise, the rally has not been equal across the board. This suggests that market participants have been selective in their purchases. As a result, traders might focus on the movers rather than the laggards.

Let’s study the charts of five cryptocurrencies that look positive in the near term. If they break above their resistance levels, they may offer short-term trading opportunities.

Bitcoin price analysis

Bitcoin is facing stiff resistance at the $29,000 level but the bulls have not allowed the price to lose ground. This suggests that the bulls are being patient, anticipating a move higher.

Ethereum's native token, Ether (ETH), eyes a run-up toward $3,000 in Q2 2023 after wrapping the previous quarter with 55% gains.

ETH price nears potential breakout

The price of Ether has more that doubled after bottoming out in June 2022 at around $880, weathering a slew of negative events, including the FTX exchange collapse, interest rate increases, and stricter U.S. regulations.

In doing so, ETH/USD has painted an ascending triangle, confirmed by its rising trendline support and horizontal level resistance. The pattern suggests aggressive buying as lows get steadily higher while highs stay around the same level, indicative of a higher selling pressure at the given level. 

As of April 2, ETH's price is testing its horizontal level resistance range ($1,700-1,820) for a potential breakout move.

A breakout will be confirmed if the price closes above the resistance range while accompanying higher volumes. Furthermore, the ascending triangle breakout target is measures with the length equal to the triangle height.

Bitcoin (BTC) is on the road to a new bull market and should deliver serious returns in the process, fresh analysis reveals

In a tweet on April 2, Charles Edwards, founder of Bitcoin and digital asset hedge fund Capriole Investments, flagged a "familiar" bull signal on the SLRV Ribbons metric.

Edwards: SLRV beginning "new trend"

SLRV Ribbons is a tool for measuring potential Bitcoin profitability. Put forward by Capriole in 2022, it is based on the Short-to-Long-term Realized Value (SLRV) Ratio from well-known analyst David Puell.

The SLRV Ratio takes the percentage of the BTC supply active in the last 24 hours and compares it to that last active 6-12 months ago. The result shows how comparatively active short-term supply and long-term supply are at a given point.

From this, an investor can gain an insight into both sentiment and likely price trajectory, but over time, such supply values may change, Edwards argues.

Bitcoin (BTC) stayed on course for its highest weekly close in ten months on April 2 as $28,000 held.

BTC price analyst: “Massive” liquidations due at $30,000

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD stable over the weekend after closing out March at near $28,500.

A key point of resistance from earlier in its current halving cycle, the current trading zone represents a major hurdle for bulls to overcome. Should they manage it, price targets extend beyond the $30,000 mark.

“Bitcoin has been consolidating below the biggest resistance/support of the last 2+ years,” analyst Matthew Hyland summarized in his latest tweet on BTC.

“A whole new ballgame if BTC breaks it. NASDAQ & S&P went strong into weekly close. Still major pessimism and disbelief while major milestones are close to being made for Stocks/BTC.”

Since May 2022, the Bitcoin (BTC) margin markets on the Bitfinex exchange have been plagued by an unusually high open interest of over $2.7 billion. This information alone should raise a red flag, especially in light of Bitcoin's price decline from $39,000 to less than $25,000 during the same period.

Traders seeking to leverage their cryptocurrency position had borrowed over 105,000 Bitcoin. Currently, the cause of this anomaly is unknown, as well as the number of entities involved in the trade.

Cheap borrowing favors high demand

Bitfinex's sub-0.1% annual rate may be a contributing factor to the size of the Bitcoin lending market. To date, this has been the norm and it creates enormous incentives for borrowing, even if there is no current need. There are few traders who would turn down such a ridiculously inexpensive leverage opportunity.

Margin borrowing can be used to take advantage of arbitrage opportunities, where a trader exploits price discrepancies between different markets. For example, borrowing Bitcoin on margin allows a trader to take a long position in one market and a short in another, profiting from the price difference.

To understand how Bitcoin borrowing can be used to profit on derivatives markets, including those outside of Bitfinex, one must understand the distinction between futures contracts and margin markets. The margin is not a derivative contract, so the trade occurs on the same order book as spot trading. In addition, unlike futures, margin longs and shorts are not always in balance.

Bitcoin’s dominance over the crypto market, which represents its share of market capitalization relative to the total cryptocurrency market capitalization, rose steeply from around 44% to highs of 48% in March. 

While Bitcoin’s price increased by 22.7% during the month, most altcoins yielded subpar or negative returns. However, there were some outliers which showed a second month of positive momentum. Take for example, XRP, which saw steady positive momentum as investors expect a positive outcome in its U.S. court case against the SEC.

Conflux Network

Conflux Network continued its positive run from February, nearly doubling its price in March. The project’s team continued to strengthen its partnerships in China by adding XCMD, the world’s third-largest construction machinery manufacturer and Zen Spark Technology.

The Conflux team also supports the development of permissionless applications. It has established a grants program to promote its ecosystem development.

The CFX token tested the support between $0.10 and $0.20 and continued its positive run to reach a new yearly high of $0.46. The market structure of the token with higher highs and higher lows looks bullish, with a potential target of $0.80. It represents the breakdown level from the 2021 bull run.

The price of Solana (SOL) fell nearly 95% in 2022, partly due to its association with tainted crypto entrepreneur Sam Bankman-Fried and his collapsed ventures, FTX and Alameda Research. But so far in 2023, things have improved for SOL’s price.

Solana’s price doubles in Q1/2023

Solana’s price has risen 104% to around $20.60 per SOL in the first quarter of 2023, the highest gains compared to any cryptocurrency in the top 25, including Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH).

In fact, January was Solana’s best month since August 2021 in terms of price performance.

SOL’s price rallied by about 140% in it without any major fundamentals that could have driven the rates up. Nonetheless, the SOL/USD pair became excessively oversold in December 2022, which may have influenced traders to buy the dip. 

The rally also coincided with Messari’s analysis of the Solana ecosystem after the FTX collapse, showing its staking and decentralization were stable and actually improved its position after the FTX fiasco.

Bitcoin (BTC) recovered recent losses at the March 31 Wall Street open as traders looked for a strong monthly close.

PCE delights risk assets as with BTC price up $1,000

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD heading to $28,556 on Bitstamp after the opening bell, up $1,000 from the day's lows.

The fresh gains followed encouraging macroeconomic data from the United States, with the February Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index modestly beating expectations in some areas.

"We are making progress in the fight against inflation," an official White House statement about the PCE numbers read.

"Today’s report shows annual inflation down by nearly 30 percent from this summer, against a backdrop of low unemployment and steady growth."

The price of Stellar (XLM) rebounded 15% versus its arch-rival XRP (XRP) two days after the XLM/XRP pair set a record low of 0.181.

Notably, the XLM/XRP pair rose to its intraday high of 0.20 XRP on March 31, coinciding with a decoupling between Stellar and XRP in the U.S. dollar market. For instance, XLM’s price has jumped over 11% since March 29 versus XRP’s 3% decline.

XLM price eyes 10% gains versus XRP in April

On a broader timeframe, XLM dropped 89% versus its peak of 1.655 XRP in January 2021. Interestingly, the peak formed a month after the United States Securities and Exchange Commission sued Ripple for allegedly selling securities in the form of XRP tokens. 

The SEC vs. Ripple case is now nearing its conclusion, with legal experts favoring a win for Ripple.

Meanwhile, XLM continues its long-term downtrend against XRP, though a rebound in April is on the cards.

Bitcoin (BTC) is back below $28,000 as the countdown to the monthly close keeps everyone on their toes.

200-week trend line among popular BTC price targets

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows BTC/USD dropping to two-day lows of $27,533 on March 31.

A modest bounce means that the pair is trading at around $27,800 at the time of writing as traders flag the most important support and resistance levels going forward.

For Crypto Tony, the current part of Bitcoin’s trading range is key, as $27,700 forms the equilibrium (EQ) level and key support that bulls should preserve.

“$27,700 is the level (EQ) you need to watch this weekend if you are currently in a fresh long position. Those who are in with me from awhile back, we are not worried unless we lose that range low,” he wrote in part of his latest Twitter analysis on the day.

The Ethereum Foundation has announced April 12 as the date of deployment of the much-anticipated Shanghai and Capella upgrade, together dubbed as Shapella.

The upgrades will enable withdrawals from Ethereum 2.0 staking contracts. The staking contract was first launched in December 2020. It only accepted one-way deposits of ETH, which will change after the upgrade.

To date, users have deposited over 18 million ETH, worth around $32.5 billion, into the Ethereum staking contract at varying times since December 2020.

Analysts vary on the estimates of ETH sell pressure

Most users opted for liquid staking derivatives on decentralized or centralized exchanges. Because these stakers are already liquid, there will likely be no new reason to sell after the Shapella upgrade.

Decentralized LSD platforms like Lido currently account for around 33.2% of the total ETH deposits on the beacon chain. Out of the rest, around 27.1% is deposited via centralized exchanges like Coinbase, Binance and Kraken. Thus, 60.3% of the staked ETH is deposited via liquid staking mediums.

Regulation continues to be the primary concern for Bitcoin bulls, especially after the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) sued Binance for trading and derivatives law violations. The regulator wants Binance to repay the trading profits, revenues, salaries, commissions, loans and fees it received from US citizens, as well as paying civil penalties for the violations.

The increase in Bitcoin’s price was also fueled by a shift in sentiment toward risk assets after the U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said interest rate hikes are no longer the default move to curb inflation. The central bank understood that the current situation will likely “result in tighter credit conditions for households and businesses, which would in turn affect economic outcomes.”

Fixed-income investors earn more when interest rates rise, so buying stocks and commodities becomes less appealing. As a result, by reversing the strategy and adding $339 billion in liabilities in two weeks, the Fed chose to contain the banking crisis, which may cause inflation to spiral out of control.

Given the accretive scenario for risk assets, Bitcoin bulls can profit up to $1.4 billion in Friday's monthly options expiry.

Bitcoin bears were caught completely off-guard

The open interest for the March 31 options expiry is $4.2 billion, but the actual figure will be lower since bears were expecting sub-$26,500 price levels. These traders were caught by surprise as Bitcoin gained 32% between March 12 and March 17.

The United States Federal Reserve has been “too heavy-handed” in taming inflation, says pro-Bitcoin (BTC) Tesla and Twitter CEO Elon Musk.

In a Twitter debate on March 29, Musk directly criticized U.S. macroeconomic policy, including “excess government spending.”

Musk: Fed policy is "serious issue"

Bitcoin and crypto markets remain extremely sensitive to Fed cues on interest rate policy.

Despite inflation gradually coming down, the Fed has continued to hike rates even as banks feel the pressure and several collapse.

For Musk, this is already a case of going too far — with banking crisis contagion spreading to Europe, the U.S. dollar, he agrees, is quickly losing appeal.

Bitcoin (BTC) set new nine-month highs overnight on March 30 as traders continued to stay cautious.

"Deviation" takes BTC price closer to $30,0

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD spiking to $29,170 on Bitstamp.

A rejection entered almost immediately, sending the pair back to its starting point and causing already suspicious market participants to call a “fakeout.”

“Nothing has changed- yea we got a nice little pop above the highs but this was expected,” popular trader Credible Crypto wrote in part of a Twitter reaction, calling the move a “deviation.”

Fellow trader Crypto Chase likewise applied the “deviation” tag, calling for $29,000 to hold in order to consider long positions.