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After a failed rally above $31,000 on June 23, Bitcoin (BTC) has sustained the $30,300 resistance for the past three days. Curiously, this happened while gold reached its lowest level in three months, trading at $1,910 on June 22, down from a $2,050 peak in early May.

Investors now question how solid Bitcoin’s $30,000 support is. So analyzing what caused the recent price rally is essential to understanding how traders are positioned on BTC margin and futures markets.

Why did BTC price break above $30,000? 

Some analysts attribute Bitcoin’s recent 21.5% gains in 11 days to BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) filing. But other events might have fueled the cryptocurrency gains. For instance, on June 26, HSBC Bank in Hong Kong reportedly introduced its first local cryptocurrency services using three listed crypto ETFs.

Moreover, the ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF, a Bitcoin futures fund, experienced its largest weekly inflow in a year at $65 million, with its assets topping $1 billion. It was the first BTC-linked ETF in the United States and is one of the most popular among institutional investors.

But, more importantly, the U.S. crypto regulatory environment may be improving after a period marked by enforcement actions from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) aimed at exchanges supposedly operating as unregistered securities brokers.

Bitcoin (BTC) may see a “market correction” should BTC price action go much beyond $33,000, research warns.

In the latest edition of its weekly newsletter, The Week On-Chain, analytics firm Glassnode flagged speculative selling risk on the horizon.

Bitcoin speculator profits average 12%

Bitcoin short-term holders (STHs) — the more speculative BTC investors — have returned to the spotlight this year.

Recently, their aggregate cost basis appeared to form wider BTC price support near $26,000. For Glassnode, which observed the cost basis’ significance in recent weeks, the opposite effect could soon appear.

As part of its coverage of short-term and long-term holder (LTH) activity, researchers highlighted levels at which speculators should take profit en masse.

The S&P 500 Index (SPX) snapped a five-week winning streak last week but it is still on track to close the first half of the year with stellar gains of nearly 13%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite has done much better as it is up about 29%. Both these indices have been overtaken by Bitcoin (BTC) which has risen nearly 83% year-to-date.

Bitcoin’s bullish price action and the recent rush by several firms to apply for a Bitcoin spot exchange-traded fund seem to have attracted institutional investors’ attention. Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas highlighted on June 26 that the ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITO) — a Bitcoin futures fund — witnessed its largest weekly inflow in a year.

Another bullish view was that of LookIntoBitcoin founder Philip Swift who said in his latest research that Bitcoin’s RHODL ratio metric is showing that Bitcoin’s supply has started to move from long-term holders to speculative investors, indicating increasing mainstream trading interest.

Could the entry of speculators boost prices further or is it a sign that the markets are overheated in the near term and may correct? Let’s analyze the charts to find out the next possible move.

S&P 500 Index price analysis

The S&P 500 Index turned down from 4,448 on June 16, indicating that the short-term bulls are booking profits. That has pulled the price to the breakout level near 4,325. The 20-day exponential moving average (4,314) is placed just below this level, hence the bulls are likely to defend it aggressively.