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Ethereum's Ether (ETH) token dropped by over 7.5% in its Bitcoin (BTC) pair in 2023. But ETH/BTC may wipe its year-to-date (YTD) losses entirely in April as Ethereum's long-awaited Shanghai hard fork is just days away.

The upgrade is set for April 12, enabling Ethereum stakers to withdraw around 1.1 billion ETH in rewards — worth over $2 billion as of April 8. 

ETH price undergoes key technical bounce

Many experts see the hard fork as bullish for Ether in the long term. For instance, the Shanghai buzz has helped Ether outperform Bitcoin in April so far.

As a result, the ETH/BTC pair has risen by about 4.75% month-to-date to reach 0.066 BTC as of April 8, a nearly 8% rebound since March 20. 

The bounce was largely expected, particularly as ETH/BTC dropped to its historical ascending trendline support. Now, the upside move raises the prospects of an extended bullish retracement toward its descending trendline resistance, marked as a "sell zone" in the chart below.

Bitcoin (BTC) reduced its narrow trading range even further into April 8 as risk assets waited for fresh catalysts. 

Hopes for BTC price "impulse" to follow sideways action

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD hovering near $28,000 on Bitstamp.

The pair continued sideways behavior into the weekend after the Wall Street trading week offered few surprises.

Despite calls for $25,000 and $30,000 to enter as near-term targets, increasing order book liquidity either side of spot price appeared to offer the market increasingly little room for maneuver.

This liquidity remained in force on the day, with monitoring resource Material Indicators capturing the phenomenon on the Binance order book.

Despite regulatory pressure and worsening macroeconomic conditions, Bitcoin (BTC) demonstrated bullishness holding near $28,000 for the past week. Furthermore, professional traders have maintained leveraged long positions on margin and in futures markets, indicating strength.

On the regulatory front, on April 4, the Texas Senate Committee on Business and Commerce agreed to move forward and remove incentives for miners operating within the state's regulatory environment. If passed, Senate Bill 1751 would set a cap on compensation for load reductions on Texas' power grid during emergencies.

Risk of recession grows against rate hikes 

The risk of a recession grew after applications for U.S. unemployment benefits for the week ending March 25 were revised to 246,000, up 48,000 from the initial report.

Furthermore, Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), stated on April 6 that economies in the U.S. and Europe should continue to struggle as higher interest rates weigh on demand.

Regarding the banking crisis, Georgieva advised central banks to keep raising interest rates, adding, "concerns remain about vulnerabilities that may be hidden, not just at banks but also non-banks — now is not the time for complacency."

Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading below $29,000 for the past several days. The analyst community remains divided on the near-term prospects of Bitcoin. While some believe that Bitcoin could rise to $30,000, others are of the opinion that a local top has been made.

Bloomberg Intelligence senior macro strategist Mike McGlone said that cryptocurrencies, along with the stock market, crude oil and copper may find it difficult to sustain the recent bounce because bank liquidity levels remain tight.

On the other hand, SkyBridge Capital founder Anthony Scaramucci, while speaking with Yahoo Finance, said that Bitcoin’s bear market may be over, but he added that it was a guess. However, Scaramucci highlighted that Bitcoin has repeatedly outperformed other asset classes over the long term.

Will Bitcoin turn down from the current level or will bulls regroup and push the price above $30,000? Let’s study the charts of the top-10 cryptocurrencies to find out.

Bitcoin price analysis

Bitcoin has formed a symmetrical triangle near $29,000, which suggests uncertainty among the bulls and the bears about the next directional move.

Bitcoin (BTC) could rally toward $50,000 in 2023, according to a historical price fractal highlighted by popular market analyst Mags.

Bitcoin price trend in 2015 vs. 2023

The chart fractal highlights the similarities between Bitcoin’s ongoing price trends and those recorded after the completion of the 2013–2015 bear market.

That includes Bitcoin’s consolidation inside the $200–$300 range between January 2015 and August 2015, which appears identical to its consolidation between the $18,500–$25,000 range after the supposed completion of its 2021–2022 bear market.

BTC’s price broke above the $16,000–$25,000 range in March 2023, prompting Mags to highlight its resemblance to the breakout above the $200–$300 range in October 2015.

Since this resulted in a rally toward $700 in June 2016, the analyst sees the scenario potentially repeating in 2023, with BTC’s price doubling to $50,000.