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Bitcoin (BTC) price rallied over 12% on Feb. 15, marking the highest daily close in more than six months. Curiously, the movement happened while gold reached a 40-day low at $1,826, indicating some potential shift in investors' risk assessment for cryptocurrencies.

A stronger than expected U.S. inflation report on Feb. 14 presented 5.6% growth year-over-year, followed by data showing resilient consumer demand caused traders to rethink Bitcoin's scarcity value. U.S. retail sales increased by 3% in January versus the previous month — the highest gain in almost two years.

On-chain data indicates that the recent gains can be traced back to a mysterious institutional investor that started buying on Feb. 10. According to Lookonchain's data, nearly $1.6 billion in funds have flowed into the crypto market between Feb. 10 and Feb. 15. The analysis showed that three notable USD Coin (USD) wallets sent out funds to various exchanges around the same time.

More importantly, news emerged that the Binance exchange is preparing to face penalties and settle eventual outstanding regulatory and law-enforcement investigations in the U.S., according to a Feb. 15 Wall Street Journal report. The exchange's chief strategy officer, Patrick Hillmann, added that Binance was "highly confident and feeling really good about where those discussions are going."

Let's look at derivatives metrics to understand better how professional traders are positioned in the current market conditions.

While the U.S. Federal Reserve (FED) continues to monitor the overheated economy, the most likely scenario is further interest rate hikes to curb inflation. The unintended consequence is the heightened government debt cost, creating a bullish environment for scarce assets such as commodities, stock market and cryptocurrencies.

Bitcoin’s price gain practically extinguished bears expectation for a sub-$21,500 options expiry on Feb. 17, so their bets are unlikely to pay off as the deadline approaches.

Bitcoin investors' primary concern is the possibility of further impacts from regulators following the staking rewards program by the Kraken exchange being halted by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on Feb. 9 and the crackdown on Binance USD (BUSD) stablecoin issuing on Feb. 13.

Even if the newsflow remains negative, bulls still can profit in Friday's Feb. 17 options expiry by keeping the BTC price above $22,500, but the situation can easily flip and favor bears.

Bears were not expecting the $22,000 level to hold

The open interest for the Feb. 17 options expiry is $675 million, but the actual figure will be lower since bears were expecting sub-$22,000 price levels. These traders became overconfident after Bitcoin traded below $21,500 on Feb. 13.

In this week’s episode of Market Talks, Cointelegraph welcomes Michaël van de Poppe, a full-time day/swing trader in cryptocurrencies based at the Amsterdam Stock Exchange who’s interested in everything related to blockchain in combination with the current financial system. He is also the CEO and founder of Eight Global, a cryptocurrency education and consultancy platform.

We kick things off by getting van de Poppe’s take on the current market and how he’s feeling about things at the moment. 

Generally, everyone’s views on external macro factors that impact crypto prices are mostly United States-centric. Since van de Poppe is based in Amsterdam, we find out what other macro and geopolitical factors he regularly considers when assessing the markets.

After the news about the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission cracking down on stablecoins and exchanges and also the not-so-hot Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, Bitcoin (BTC) made a move that was opposite to what many market participants were expecting. Van de Poppe shares hi thoughts and reasoning for this. 

We get into the nitty-gritty about van de Poppe’s approach to investing in altcoins and how the two large-cap cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin and Ether (ETH), impact his decisions, if at all.