Decentral Block Post

Despite the recent negative crypto and macroeconomic newsflow, the total cryptocurrency market capitalization broke above $1 trillion on Jan. 21. An encouraging sign is that derivatives metrics are not showing increased demand from bearish traders at the moment. 

Bitcoin (BTC) price gained 8% on the week, stabilizing near the $23,100 level at 18:00 UTC on Jan. 27 as the markets weighed the potential impact of Genesis Capital's bankruptcy on Jan. 19.

One area of concern is Genesis Capital's largest debtor is Digital Currency Group (DCG), which happens to be its parent company. Consequently, Grayscale funds management could be at risk, so investors are unsure if the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) assets could face liquidation. The investment vehicle currently holds over $14 billion worth of Bitcoin positions for its holders.

A United States appeals court is set to hear the arguments relating to Grayscale Investment's lawsuit against the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on March 8. The fund manager questioned the SEC's decision to deny their asset-backed exchange-traded fund (ETF) launch.

Regulatory concerns also negatively impacted the markets after South Korean prosecutors requested an arrest warrant for Bithumb exchange owner Kang Jong-Hyun. On Jan. 25, the Financial Investigation 2nd Division of the Seoul Southern District Prosecutor's Office sentenced Kang and two Bithumb executives on charges of conducting fraudulent illegal transactions.

Aptos’ APT reached a new all-time high of $20.39 after posting gains exceeding 400% since the start of 2023. While the rally could just be a pump-and-dump event due to the perception of weak fundamentals, increasing negative sentiment toward the token will likely fuel the prices in the short term.

Let’s explore some of the factors that could be propelling the Aptos price rally.

A rich history and strong investor backing

Aptos is a byproduct of Facebook’s attempt with the Libra blockchain, which regulators forcibly shut down. Two of Libra’s leadership team members, Mo Shaikh and Avery Ching, later found Aptos, a decentralized version of the abandoned blockchain project.

The project is based on the Move programming language and introduces a new class of layer-1 blockchains that will compete against the likes of Solana and Cardano. The primary reasons behind the tailwinds for the APT token include investors’ hope for a technological breakthrough that could finally provide a scalable, secure, decentralized blockchain.

Aptos raised $350 million in 2022, which included a $200 million seed round led by Andreessen Horowitz and a $150 million Series A funding round led by FTX Ventures and Jump Crypto. Later, Binance made a follow-on strategic investment to help boost the Aptos ecosystem.

Aptos’ APT reached a new all-time high of $20.39 after posting gains exceeding 400% since the start of 2023. While the rally could just be a pump-and-dump event due to the perception of weak fundamentals, increasing negative sentiment toward the token will likely fuel the prices in the short term.

Let’s explore some of the factors that could be propelling the Aptos price rally.

A rich history and strong investor backing

Aptos is a byproduct of Facebook’s attempt with the Libra blockchain, which regulators forcibly shut down. Two of Libra’s leadership team members, Mo Shaikh and Avery Ching, later found Aptos, a decentralized version of the abandoned blockchain project.

The project is based on the Move programming language and introduces a new class of layer-1 blockchains that will compete against the likes of Solana and Cardano. The primary reasons behind the tailwinds for the APT token include investors’ hope for a technological breakthrough that could finally provide a scalable, secure, decentralized blockchain.

Aptos raised $350 million in 2022, which included a $200 million seed round led by Andreessen Horowitz and a $150 million Series A funding round led by FTX Ventures and Jump Crypto. Later, Binance made a follow-on strategic investment to help boost the Aptos ecosystem.

A bill introduced to the New York State Assembly on Jan. 26 would allow state agencies to accept cryptocurrency as a form of payment for fines, civil penalties, taxes, fees, and other payments charged by the state.

New York State Assembly Bill A523 was introduced by Democratic Assemblymember Clyde Vanel, who is often seen as a crypto-friendly politician. It allows state agencies to enter into “agreements with persons to provide the acceptance, by offices of the state, of cryptocurrency as a means of payment” for various types of fees, including “fines, civil penalties, rent, rates, taxes, fees, charges, revenue, financial obligations or other amounts, including penalties, special assessments and interest, owed to state agencies.”

The bill does not obligate state agencies to accept crypto as payment, but it does clarify that state agencies can legally agree to accept such payments and that these agreements should be enforced by the courts.

The bill defines “cryptocurrency” as “any form of digital currency in which encryption techniques are used to regulate the generation of units of currency [...] Including but not limited to, bitcoin, ethereum, litecoin and bitcoin cash.”

Depending on how this definition is interpreted, it may or may not include stablecoins like USD Coin (USDC) and Tether (USDT). On the one hand, the supply of stablecoins is usually regulated by the issuer instead of by cryptography. On the other hand, the bill does recognize that some cryptocurrencies have an “issuer,” and it provides that agencies can charge the payor an extra fee if such a fee is charged by the cryptocurrency’s issuer.

Bitcoin (BTC) has “well-formed” evidence, which suggests that its next all-time high will top out at $200,000, one analyst says.

In a tweet on Jan. 27, popular Twitter commentator Trader Tardigrade, also known as Alan, also revealed $70,000 as the next potential bear market bottom.

Stochastic indicator offers Bitcoin bulls historical firepower

For many, BTC price action is still bound by Bitcoin’s four-year halving cycles. The resulting price pattern offers one “all time high year” in every four, with 2025 next in line.

Bitcoin’s block subsidy halving will occur a year prior, and from then on, Alan argues, the path will be open to a giant $200,000.

That price tag came about from an analysis of Bitcoin’s stochastic oscillator, which syncs with cycle highs and lows in BTC/USD. Currently, the indicator is printing its latest trough, and if history is a guide, price behavior will do likewise.

Litecoin (LTC) has rebounded by 130% to almost $100 after bottoming out near $40.50 in June 2022. The primary reasons include broadly improving risk-on sentiment and euphoria around the Litecoin halving in August 2023.

However, technicals suggest that LTC may wipe out most of these gains in the coming months.

LTC price paints giant bear flag 

Litecoin stands to pare its gains mainly due to a giant bear flag on the weekly char. 

A bear flag is a bearish continuation pattern that occurs when the price consolidates inside an ascending, parallel channel after undergoing a strong downtrend. It resolves after the price breaks below its lower trendline with a rise in trading volumes

Litecoin has been painting a similar pattern since early June 2022. Previously, the LTC/USD pair had undergone a 70% price correction from $130 to $40.50. Thus, from the technical perspective, it would resume its downtrend course if its price breaks below the lower trendline.