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Solana (SOL) still has room to fall in the near term, but SOL/USD can rally 5,000% if it follows in the footsteps of its top rival Ethereum. 

That Ethereum 2018 fractal

SOL risks dropping to $15 on anticipations it would behave like Ethereum during the market crash in 2018.

Notably, Ethereum's native token Ether (ETH) price fell to nearly $79 in December 2018 after undergoing a 95% correction earlier that year from its peak of $1,529. Afterward, it underwent a long recovery, rising nearly 6,000% over the next four years and thus hitting a record high of around $4,950 in November 2022.

Solana, which rivals Ethereum for its top spot in the smart contracts sector, has fallen by over 85% after peaking out in November 2021 at nearly $267. That leaves the token with the room to fall by another 10% when measured from its said record high.

Popular analyst PostyXBT says SOL could decline to $15, thus mirroring Ethereum's bear cycle in 2018. What's more, the Solana token could see an Ethereum-like recovery in the coming years that could take SOL price to over $750, he adds.

There is an old Arabic proverb: “The dogs bark, but the caravan moves on.” It could summarize the journey to date of Tether (USDT), the world’s largest stablecoin. 

Tether has been embroiled in legal and financial wrangling through much of its short history. There have been lawsuits over alleged market manipulation, charges by the New York State attorney general that Tether lied about its reserves — costing the firm $18.5 million in fines in 2021 — and this year, questions voiced by United States Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen as to whether USDT could maintain its peg to the U.S. dollar. More recently, investment short sellers “have been ramping up their bets against Tether,” the Wall Street Journal reported on June 27.

But, Tether has weathered all those storms and seems to keep moving on — like the proverbial caravan. On July 1, the company announced that it had dramatically reduced the amount of commercial paper in its reserves, which has been a sore point with critics for some time.

Embracing U.S. Treasury reserves?

Tether’s commercial paper reserves are expected to reach a new low of $3.5 billion by the end of July, down from $24.2 billion at the end of 2021. The company added that its “goal remains to bring the figure down to zero.” 

Many stablecoins like Tether are stand-ins for the U.S. dollar, and they are supposed to be backed 1:1 by liquid assets like cash and U.S. Treasury bills. But, historically, as much as half of USDT’s reserves were in commercial paper, which is generally seen as less secure and more illiquid than Treasuries. Hence, the potential significance of the commercial paper statement.

Bank of England (BoE) deputy governor for financial stability, Jon Cunliffe, recommended forming a set of regulations — similar to conventional financial systems — to tackle risks within the crypto ecosystem while improving investor confidence. 

Speaking at a press conference, Cunliffe highlighted the recent downfall of the Terra ecosystem, pointing out that cryptocurrencies that fail to maintain their value induce stress across crypto markets. He compared his idea for a crypto regulatory framework to similar instances in traditional finance wherein regulations shelter investors from unrecoverable losses, adding:

“For me, it underlines the fact that we need now to bring in the regulatory system that will manage those risks in the crypto world in the same way that we manage them in the conventional world.”

While acknowledging crypto’s “real potential for use in the financial system,” Cunliffe stated that regulations for crypto need not be fundamentally different from traditional finance. However, it may need to be applied differently while considering the underlying technology powering  cryptocurrencies.

BoE Governor Andrew Bailey stressed the need for involvement of international bodies in borderless or cross-border trading of cryptocurrencies. Bailey said that “unbacked crypto” does not have an intrinsic value but can be better viewed as an investment. On the other hand, the governor believed that stablecoins are better suited as a means of payment, adding:

Bitcoin (BTC) starts another week in a precarious position near $20,000 ahead of fresh macro upheaval.

After admittedly sealing its best week’s gains since March, the largest cryptocurrency is struggling to hold onto its recently-reclaimed levels.

Major resistance zones remain overhead, and with inflation data due for release later in the week, the coming days could prove unnerving for risk assets everywhere.

At the same time, crypto market sentiment is showing signs of recovery, and on-chain metrics continue to underscore what should be Bitcoin’s latest macro price bottom. 

With conflicting data everywhere, Cointelegraph takes a deeper look at potential market-moving factors for the week ahead.