Decentral Block Post

Bitcoin (BTC) price is showing notable resilience at the $17,000 level, and according to data from Glassnode, a number of metrics that track the pace of selling and the on-chain behavior of investors are beginning to show a reduction in the factors that trigger sharp sell-offs.

The FTX bankruptcy fueled a historic sell-off resulting in $4.4 billion in realized Bitcoin losses. By analyzing realized losses with the daily weighted average metric, Glassnode analysts found that the on-chain losses are subsiding.

According to Glassnode, Bitcoin hit an all-time low in the realized profits versus losses ratio. Toward the end of the most recent bull market, realized losses were 14 times larger than profits, which historically coincided with a positive market shift.

The on-chain data also shows realized losses are declining and Bitcoin price is above the balanced price and realized cap is dropping, removing excess liquidity generated from over-leveraged entities. 

Realized cap suggests excess liquidity is drained

The realized cap is the net sum of Bitcoin capital inflows and outflows since BTC’s launch.

It’s the final month of the year and analysts are out with their projections for the next year. In a note to investors, Standard Chartered suggested that “The financial-market surprises of 2023” will include Bitcoin (BTC) price diving to $5,000 at some point in the year. The fall will be triggered by a liquidity crunch, which could result in more bankruptcies and a fall in investor confidence in the crypto sector.

If this feels like an extreme, venture capitalist Tim Draper went in the opposite direction and predicted that Bitcoin could skyrocket to $250,000 by the middle of 2023. While speaking with CNBC, Draper said that Bitcoin’s massive rally is likely to be fuelled by increased participation from women who control a large part of retail spending.

In the short term, analysts remain divided on the prospects of a Bitcoin rally. While some analysts expect a Christmas rally to push Bitcoin toward $19,000, others are not so optimistic.

Could the S&P 500 index (SPX) witness profit booking in the near term? Is the U.S. dollar index (DXY) ripe for a recovery? What is the effect of these two asset classes on cryptocurrencies? Let’s study the charts to find out.

SPX

The S&P 500 index rebounded off the 20-day exponential moving average (3,967) on Nov. 30, indicating that bulls continue to view the dips as a buying opportunity.

Bitcoin (BTC) cooled volatility above $17,000 into the Dec. 5 Wall Street open as traders confirmed upside targets.

Bitcoin traders warm to near-term upside

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView followed BTC/USD as it held overnight gains, having hit three-week highs.

The weekly close itself was encouraging for some, forming Bitcoin’s highest since the FTX scandal broke.

Now, traders were hoping that upside would continue toward $20,000, with various resistance zones in play.

“Slowly, but surely, Bitcoin is grinding upwards. Needs to crack $17.4-17.6K, but then we most likely continue quite fastly towards $19K,” Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading firm Eight, wrote in an update on the day.

Litecoin (LTC) could rise another 20% amid a rare trend reversal breakout that has already resulted in LTC outperforming most crypto assets in recent days.

LTC's not-so-bearish symmetrical triangle

LTC's price broke out of what earlier appeared to be a bearish symmetrical triangle.

Symmetrical triangles are trend continuation patterns, meaning breaking out of their range typically prompts the price to move in the direction of their previous trend. 

Litecoin formed a symmetrical triangle pattern between May and November after dropping 70% to nearly $40 in the prior trading sessions. Ideally, the LTC/USD pair could have resolved the pattern by breaking below its lower trendline.

But instead, it broke above the upper trendline in early November, as shown below. According to Edwards and Magee, the authors of Technical Analysis of Stock Trend, the breakout move is rare, given only 25% of symmetrical triangle breakouts have historically resulted in trend reversals.

Litecoin (LTC) could rise another 20% amid a rare trend reversal breakout that has already resulted in LTC outperforming most crypto assets in recent days.

LTC's not-so-bearish symmetrical triangle

LTC's price broke out of what earlier appeared to be a bearish symmetrical triangle.

Symmetrical triangles are trend continuation patterns, meaning breaking out of their range typically prompts the price to move in the direction of their previous trend. 

Litecoin formed a symmetrical triangle pattern between May and November after dropping 70% to nearly $40 in the prior trading sessions. Ideally, the LTC/USD pair could have resolved the pattern by breaking below its lower trendline.

But instead, it broke above the upper trendline in early November, as shown below. According to Edwards and Magee, the authors of Technical Analysis of Stock Trend, the breakout move is rare, given only 25% of symmetrical triangle breakouts have historically resulted in trend reversals.