Decentral Block Post

U.S. investors have been waiting for a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) approval since May 2014 when the Winklevoss Bitcoin Trust filed an amendment request at the Securities and Exchange (SEC). 

Over the years, the SEC has rejected every applicant and the latest denial was issued to WisdomTree’s application for a spot Bitcoin ETF on Oct. 11. The SEC concluded that the offer did not have the ability “to obtain information necessary to detect, investigate, and deter fraud and market manipulation, as well as violations of exchange rules and applicable federal securities laws and rules.”

Bitcoin investment trust vehicles have existed since 2013, but they have been restricted to accredited investors. Launching a spot-based BTC ETF would open the market to retail investors and a broader array of mutual funds in the industry.

At the moment, U.S. regulators are reluctant to release what many believe would be a more fair and transparent product for Bitcoin. A conflicting reality is, while BTC spot ETFs continue to be rejected, the exact same product has long been available for bonds, global currencies, gold, Chinese equities, real estate, oil and silver.

The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust Fund (GBTC), a U$ 12.3 billion investment fund, is currently trading at a record-high 36.7% discount versus its Bitcoin holdings, but this might not be a buy the dip-type of discount. The gap started after the Toronto Stock Exchange launched the Purpose Bitcoin ETF in February 2021, which is a spot investment product.

Bitcoin (BTC) is showing textbook macro bottom signs in a “business as usual” bear market, data suggests.

In fresh findings published on Oct. 13, popular Twitter trader Alan revealed that BTC price action is closely mimicking prior cycles.

Trader on Stoch data: "Don't be shaken out"

While some are concerned about the current state of Bitcoin and crypto markets, on-chain indicators have long suggested that the 2022 bear market is comfortingly similar to previous ones.

Eyeing the one-month stochastic chart for BTC/USD, Alan highlighted Bitcoin repeating a structure common to both the 2014 and 2018 bear markets.

Stochastic oscillators are classic tools for identifying price cycles and bullish and bearish interplay.

This week, Bitcoin’s (BTC) price took a tumble as a hotter-than-expected consumer price index (CPI) report showed high inflation remains a persistent challenge despite a wave of interest rate hikes from the United States Federal Reserve. Interestingly, the market’s negative reaction to a high CPI print seemed priced in by investors, and BTC’s and Ether’s (ETH) prices reclaimed all of their intraday losses to close the day in the black. 

A quick look at Bitcoin’s market structure shows that even with the post-CPI print drop, the price continues to trade in the same price range it has been in for the past 122 days. Adding to this dynamic, Cointelegraph market analyst Ray Salmond reported on a unique situation where Bitcoin’s futures open interest is at a record high, while its volatility is also near record lows.

These factors, along with other indicators, have historically preceded explosive price movements, but history will also show that predicting the direction of these moves is nearly impossible.

So, aside from multiple metrics hinting that a decisive price move is brewing, Bitcoin is still doing more of the same thing it’s done for the past 4.5 months. With that being the case, it is perhaps time to start looking elsewhere for emerging trends and possible opportunities.

Here are a few data points that I’ve continued to be intrigued by.

This week, Bitcoin’s (BTC) price took a tumble as a hotter-than-expected consumer price index (CPI) report showed high inflation remains a persistent challenge despite a wave of interest rate hikes from the United States Federal Reserve. Interestingly, the market’s negative reaction to a high CPI print seemed priced in by investors, and BTC’s and Ether’s (ETH) prices reclaimed all of their intraday losses to close the day in the black. 

A quick look at Bitcoin’s market structure shows that even with the post-CPI print drop, the price continues to trade in the same price range it has been in for the past 122 days. Adding to this dynamic, Cointelegraph market analyst Ray Salmond reported on a unique situation where Bitcoin’s futures open interest is at a record high, while its volatility is also near record lows.

These factors, along with other indicators, have historically preceded explosive price movements, but history will also show that predicting the direction of these moves is nearly impossible.

So, aside from multiple metrics hinting that a decisive price move is brewing, Bitcoin is still doing more of the same thing it’s done for the past 4.5 months. With that being the case, it is perhaps time to start looking elsewhere for emerging trends and possible opportunities.

Here are a few data points that I’ve continued to be intrigued by.

The United States consumer price index (CPI) increased 8.2% annually in September, beating economists’ expectations of an 8.1% rise. The CPI print lived up to its hype and caused a sharp, but short-term increase in volatile risk assets. 

The S&P 500 oscillated inside its widest trading range since 2020 and Bitcoin (BTC) also witnessed a large intraday range of more than $1,323 on Oct. 13. However, Bitcoin still could not shake out of the $18,125 to $20,500 range it has been stuck in for the past several days.

Both the U.S. equities markets and Bitcoin tried to extend their recovery on Oct. 14 but the higher levels attracted selling, indicating that the bears have not yet given up.

Could the increased volatility culminate with a breakout to the upside or will it start the next leg of the downtrend?

Let’s study the charts of the S&P 500 index, the U.S. dollar index (DXY) and the major cryptocurrencies to find out.