Decentral Block Post

Bitcoin (BTC) starts a new week with consolidation in the air amid some of the least volatile conditions ever.

Despite losing 5% in an hour last week, Bitcoin’s subsequent lack of volatility is on every trader’s mind.

The question is whether that will change in the coming days.

There are plenty of potential catalysts, from macroeconomic data to exchange setups and more, but which will win out — and in which direction it will send BTC price — remains to be seen.

Behind the scenes, it remains business as usual for Bitcoin network fundamentals, with miners preserving their newfound buoyancy and ready for new all-time highs in difficulty.

The United States equities markets made a strong recovery this week but Bitcoin (BTC) failed to follow suit. This means that cryptocurrency investors stayed away and could be worried by the ongoing problems at Silvergate bank. These fears could be what is behind the total crypto market capitalization dropping to nearly $1 trillion.

The behavior analytics platform Santiment said in a report on March 5 that there was a “huge spike of bearish sentiment,” according to their bullish versus bearish word comparison Social Trends chart. However, the firm added that the “kind of overwhelmingly bearish sentiment can lead to a nice bounce to silence the critics.”

Another short-term positive for the crypto markets is the weakness in the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which fell by 0.70 in the past 7 days. This suggests that crypto markets may attempt a recovery over the next few days. As long as Bitcoin remains above $20,000, select altcoins may outperform the broader markets.

Let’s study the charts of Bitcoin and the four altcoins that are showing promise in the near term.

BTC/USDT

Bitcoin plummeted below the $22,800 support on March 3. Buyers tried to push the price back above the breakdown level on March 5 but the long wick on the candlestick suggests that bears are trying to flip $22,800 into resistance.

Bitcoin (BTC) stayed near key support on March 5 as the weekly candle close brought fresh fears of a breakdown.

Analyst warns over fate of $20,000

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView followed BTC/USD as it continued to move in a tight range over the weekend.

The pair had remained practically stationary since its abrupt fall on March 3, triggered by a margin call amid uncertainty over  Silvergate Bank.

While avoiding further losses, analysis warned that Bitcoin could still easily fall much lower if a nearby support level failed to hold.

Monitoring resource Material Indicators explained that BTC price action had “lost key technical support” and that $22,000 — the sight of a recent resistance/support (R/S) flip — was now all that remained for bulls to hold onto.

Bitcoin (BTC) stayed lower into the weekend as ongoing problems at Silvergate bank pressured markets.

Bad news holds Bitcoin back

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD lingering at around $22,350 on March 4.

The pair had managed to avoid further losses after the initial shock around Silvergate wiped 5% off the spot price in minutes. 

With United States equities delivering a strong finish to the week, Bitcoin and altcoins were unable to capitalize on what traders argued would normally be an opportunity for gains.

“Most global equity indices have now printed higher lows,” popular commentator Tedtalksmacro wrote in part of an update overnight.

Cryptocurrency markets experienced a relatively calm month in February as the total market capitalization gained 4% in the period. However, the fear of regulatory pressure appears to be having an impact on volatility in March.

Bulls will undoubtedly miss the technical pattern that has been guiding the total crypto market capitalization upward for the past 48 days. Unfortunately, not all trends last forever, and the 6.3% price correction on March 2 was enough to break below the ascending channel support level.

As displayed above, the ascending channel initiated in mid-January saw its $1.025-trillion market cap floor ruptured after Silvergate Bank, a major player in crypto on- and off-ramping, saw its stock plunge by 57.7% at the New York Stock Exchange on March 2. Silvergate announced “additional losses” and suboptimal capitalization, potentially triggering a bank run that could lead to the situation spiraling out of control.

Silvergate provides financial infrastructure services to some of the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchanges, institutional investors and mining companies. Consequently, clients were incentivized to seek alternative solutions or sell their positions to reduce exposure in the crypto sector.

On March 2, the bankrupt cryptocurrency exchange FTX revealed a “massive shortfall” in its digital asset and fiat currency holdings, contrary to the previous estimate that $5 billion could be recovered in cash and liquid crypto positions. On Feb. 28, former FTX engineering director Nishad Singh pleaded guilty to charges of wire fraud along with wire and commodities fraud conspiracy.

The U.S. stock market approaches a crucial turning point as uncertainty over inflation rises after hotter-than-expected economic data released in February. Despite mounting investor worries, the economy is showing signs of resilience that could protect against a significant downside move. 

The escalating risk-off sentiment in the market is also creating volatility for Bitcoin (BTC). The leading crypto asset, which has had a strong correlation with the U.S. stock market, moved oppositely to the stock market in February. The correction between BTC and Nasdaq turned negative for the first time in two years. However, with the crypto bulls pausing at the $25,200 level, the risks of a downturn alongside stocks are increasing.

While there’s certainly a reason to maintain caution until the release of new economic data and the United States Federal Reserve meeting in March, some indicators suggest that the worst could still be over in terms of new market lows.

Inflation remains sticky

The biggest worries of the current bear cycle, which began in 2022, have been decade-high inflation. In January, the Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) level came in hotter than expected, with a 0.2% increase versus the previous month.

There are some additional signs that inflation may remain sticky. The housing sector inflation, which commands more than 40% of the weightage in CPI calculation, has shown no sign of a downturn.

Bitcoin (BTC) traded around $22,400 at the March 3 Wall Street open as analysts remained divided over the odds of a recovery.

Hopes for an inverse “Bart Simpson” on BTC

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD trading flat after an earlier flash crash saw $1,000 shaved off in minutes.

As Cointelegraph reported, concerns over the fate of Silvergate Bank exacerbated existing market cold feet to spark a margin call cascade to $22,000.

At the time of writing, only a modest comeback had taken place, while opinions diverged as to how short-term price action would play out. 

“Locked in some profit here on my short at $23,200 and moved my stop loss into profit so it’s risk free,” a risk-off Crypto Tony told Twitter followers.