Decentral Block Post

Sept. 12 will leave a mark that will probably stick for quite a while. Traders at the Bitfinex exchange vastly reduced their leveraged bearish Bitcoin (BTC) bets and the absence of demand for shorts could have been caused by the expectation of cool inflation data.

Bears may have lacked confidence, but August's U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in higher than market expectations and they appear to be on the right side. The inflation index, which tracks a broad basket of goods and services, increased 8.3% over the previous year. More importantly, the energy prices component fell 5% in the same period but it was more than offset by increases in food and shelter costs.

Soon after the worse-than-expected macroeconomic data was released, U.S. equity indices took a downturn, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index futures sliding 3.6% in 30 minutes. Cryptocurrencies accompanied the worsening mood, and Bitcoin price dropped 5.7% in the same period, erasing gains from the previous 3 days.

Pinpointing the market downturn to a single inflationary metric would be naive. A Bank of America survey with global fund managers had 62% of respondents saying that a recession is likely, which is the highest estimate since May 2020. The research paper collected data on the week of Sept. 8 and was led by strategist Michael Hartnett.

Interestingly, as all of this takes place, Bitcoin margin traders have never been so bullish, according to one metric.

Crypto and stock markets are feeling the pain after the Sept. 13 inflation report printed an unexpectedly hot figure that showed headline inflation rising by 0.1% month-over-month.

Even with gas prices falling to multi-month lows and a cooling housing market, core inflation saw a 0.6% month-over-month bump and year-to-year inflation sits at 8.3%.

While market participants and investors had estimated the next Federal Reserve interest hike to be a hefty 0.75 basis points, many also subscribed to a loosely held assumption that Sept. 13’s CPI report would come in softer than projected.

Given that the market had supposedly “priced in” a 0.75 bps hike, crypto traders expected Bitcoin (BTC), Ether (ETH) and select altcoins to break out to the upside.

Well, obviously the complete opposite occurred.

Bitcoin (BTC) fell further after the Sept. 13 Wall Street open as the dust settled on unexpectedly high United States inflation.

BTC price eyes 9% daily losses

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD giving up $21,000, down up to 8.45% on the day.

Bearish tendencies set in after the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) print for August arrived 0.2% higher than expected.

This, in turn, boosted the likelihood of a 75 or 100-basis-point key rate hike next week by the Federal Reserve — something that would pressure already creaking risk-asset markets.

Bitcoin proved especially sensitive to the event, with downside nonetheless contained by anticipated support at $20,800.

Solana (SOL) ticked higher on Sep. 13, mirroring similar upside moves in the broader cryptocurrency market, led by Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH).

On the daily chart, SOL's price gained over 4% to $39, its best level in 3 weeks. The token's intraday gains came as an extension of a prevailing uptrend that has seen its price gaining 30% in just 2 weeks.

In comparison to Solana, Bitcoin and Ether underperformed, securing 16% and 22% gains in the same period. Let's look at the mix of fundamental and technicals that may have prompted SOL to rally higher.

Helium's merge with Solana

On Aug. 30, core developers behind the Helium Network, which offers decentralized wireless 5G network coverage by enabling users to become hotspots, announced a governance proposal to migrate to the Solana blockchain from its native chain. 

The Helium developers cited their "need to improve operational efficiency and scalability" while seeing Solana as an ideal fit.

Bitcoin (BTC) crashed below $22,000 instantly on Sept. 13 after United States inflation data failed to meet estimates. 

CPI print sparks major crypto rout

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD swiftly falling $1,000 after Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation for August came in at 8.3% year-on-year.

The consensus was that 8.1% would be the latest figure, and the overshoot suggested that inflation was not slowing at the expected pace.

Nonetheless, versus July, year-on-year growth was still down 0.2%, preserving the overall trend of slowing CPI inflation.

This was not enough to avoid a crypto rout, however, and at the time of writing, Bitcoin was below $21,500, down 4% on the day.

Bitcoin (BTC) continued to battle major resistance on Sep. 13 as markets prepared for United States inflation numbers.

"Serious" whales present new BTC price hurdl

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView tracked BTC/USD as it sought to push through $22,500.

Bulls had attempted to vanquish a wall of seller interest in the range just above $22,000, this proving especially stubborn and leading to an overnight consolidation phase.

On-chain monitoring resource Material Indicators highlighted the struggle in a screenshot of the Binance BTC/USD order book the day prior.

For fellow analytics platform Whalemap, meanwhile, it was no wonder that the current range was a sticking point for bulls.

On Sept. 12, Bitcoin is doing Bitcoin things as usual. Since Sept. 9 the price has broken out nicely, booking a near 16% gain and rallying into the long-term descending trendline which appears to have resistance at $23,000. 

Perhaps BTC and the wider market are turning bullish ahead of the Ethereum Merge which is scheduled for Sept. 14, or maybe the elusive bottom is finally in. Weekly chart data from TradingView shows that on June 27 and Aug. 15, Bitcoin’s relative strength index had dropped to lows not seen since 2019.

Currently, the metric has rebounded from a near oversold 31 to its current 38.5 reading. Some traders might also note a bullish divergence on the metric, where the RSI follows an ascending trendline while Bitcoin’s weekly candlesticks trend downward. Bitcoin’s moving average convergence divergence (MACD) has also crossed over as purchasing volume surged and BTC price attempts to break from its current 90-day range.

As pointed out in previous analysis, since Jan. 21, Bitcoin price has simply been range trading in what have turned out to be successive bear flags that see continuation to new yearly lows. Price has consistently encountered resistance at the overhead descending trendline and the price action witnessed today and in the past 90-days is not a deviation from the trend.

Traders should watch for BTC price to push secure a few daily closes above the trendline resistance and setting a daily higher high above $25,400, or even a breakout to the 200-MA at $30,000 would be an excellent sight of either a trend change or at least a leg up to a new consolidation range. Until that occurs, the standard practice among traders is to not go long at long term resistance and wait to see whether the bullish momentum holds or the prevailing trend remains intact.