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Tired of losing money? Here are 2 reasons why retail investors always lose

A quick flick through Twitter, any social media investing club, or investing-themed Reddit will quickly allow one to find handfuls of traders who have vastly excelled throughout a month, semester, or even a year. Believe it or not, most successful traders cherry-pick periods or use different accounts simultaneously to ensure there’s always a winning position to display.

On the other hand, millions of traders blow up their portfolios and turn out empty-handed, especially when using leverage. Take, for example, the United Kingdom’s Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) which requires that brokers disclose the percentage of their accounts in the region that are unprofitably trading derivatives. According to the data, 69% to 84% of retail investors lose money

Similarly, a study by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission found that 70% of foreign exchange traders lose money every quarter, and eToro, a multinational broker with 27 million users, reported that nearly 80% of retail investors lost money over 12 months.

The same pattern emerges in every market across different continents and decades: retail traders seldom sustain profitable operations. Still, novice and experienced investors think they can overcome that bias due to ingenuity or mass marketing campaigns from influencers, exchanges and algorithmic trading systems.

Below are the 4 culprits behind the inevitable failure of retail traders. There is no easy solution aside from a long-term mentality and dollar-cost average-based strategy of buying a fixed amount every week or month.

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Sports Metaverse company secures $200 million funding

The company said the funds will support the building of virtual sports cities around the world.

What’s next for Bitcoin and the crypto market now that the Ethereum Merge is over?

The Ethereum Merge came and went, leaving investors to ponder what the next trending development in the market could look like. In a Cointelegraph Twitter Space with Capriole founder Charles Edwards, the analyst mentioned that excitement over the Ethereum Merge and its bullish price action had somewhat been holding up hope across the market. Now that the event has come and gone, the crypto market has been selling off, with Bitcoin’s (BTC) price trading below $20,000 and Ether’s (ETH) under $1,500. 

Eventually, new narratives and market trends will emerge, and if the fundamentals are right, traders will rotate funds as these new leaders emerge.

Let’s take a look at a few potential trends.

Where will the former ETH miners go?

The Ethereum network successfully shifted to a proof-of-stake (PoS) model, meaning miners are out of pocket but still possibly in possession of their GPUs and ASICs mining infrastructure. It’s possible that some miners might elect to mine on a different chain instead of selling their gear.

While they haven’t settled on any particular chain just yet, Ravencoin, Flux, Ethereum Classic and Ergo seem to be the frontrunners. Leading into the Merge, each network saw its hash rate rise to new all-time highs, as shown below.

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Binance partners with Ukrainian supermarket chain to accept crypto through Pay Wallet.

Customers who use the Binance Pay Wallet to pay for their orders will be eligible to enter a rewards program.

Data challenges the DXY correlation to Bitcoin rallies and corrections ‘thesis’

Presently, there seems to be a general assumption that when the U.S. dollar value increases against other global major currencies, as measured by the DXY index, the impact on Bitcoin (BTC) is negative.

Traders and influencers have been issuing alerts about this inverse correlation, and how the eventual reversal of the movement would likely push Bitcoin price higher.

Analyst @CryptoBullGems recently reviewed how the DXY index looks overbought after its relative strength index (RSI) passed 78 and could be the start of a retrace for the dollar index.

Moreover, technical analyst @1coin2sydes presents a bearish double top formation on the DXY chart, while simultaneously Bitcoin forms a double bottom, a bullish indicator.

Correlation changes over time, despite the general inverse trend

The periods of inverse movements between Bitcoin and the DXY index have never exceeded 36 days. The correlation metric ranges from a negative 1, meaning select markets move in opposite directions, to a positive 1, which reflects a perfect and symmetrical movement. A disparity or a lack of relationship between the two assets would be represented by 0.

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The floppening? Ethereum price weakens post-Merge, risking 55% drop against Bitcoin

Ethereum's native token Ether (ETH) has been forming an inverse-cup-and-handle pattern since May 2021 on the weekly chart, which hints at a potential decline against Bitcoin (BTC). 

ETH/BTC weekly price chart featuring inverse cup-and-handle breakdown setup. Source: TradingView

An inverse cup-and-handle is a bearish reversal pattern, accompanied by lower trading volume. It typically resolves after the price breaks below its support level, followed by a fall toward the level at a length equal to the maximum height between the cup's peak and the support line.

Applying the theoretical definition on ETH/BTC's weekly chart presents 0.03 BTC as its next downside target, down around 55% from Sept. 16's price.

Can ETH/BTC pull a Dow Jones?

Alternatively, the ETH/BTC pair could nevertheless deliver some large gains in the years to come.

On the weekly log chart, the ETH/BTC pair is painting a potential cup-and-handle since January 2018. In other words, a rally toward 0.5 BTC in 2023 is on the table, up more than 520% from current price levels.

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40%+ Ethereum PoS nodes are controlled by two addresses says Santiment data

Data released hours after the Merge prompted concerns about the alleged centralization of PoS.

Bitcoin exchange inflows see biggest one-day spike since March 2020

Bitcoin (BTC) exchanges have seen huge volumes this month as price declines lead to renewed interest in trading.

Data from sources including on-chain analytics firm Glassnode shows exchange inflows hitting their highest since March 2020.

"The scent of volatility is in the air"

On Sept. 14, over 236,000 BTC made its way to the 1 major exchanges tracked by Glassnode.

This was the largest single-day spike since the chaos that surrounded Bitcoin’s dip to just $3,600 in March 2020.

Bitcoin total transfer volume to exchanges chart. Source: Glassnode

The sell-offs in May 2021 and May and June this year failed to match the tally, suggesting that more of the Bitcoin investor base is currently aiming to reduce exposure.

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DeData 2022: The advantages of decentralization in Web3

Cointelegraph’s editor-in-chief Kristina Cornèr moderated a panel that discussed what decentralization brings to Web3 at DeData 2022.

Does Ethereum's new ETHPoW fork stand a chance? ETHW price falls 65% post-Merge

ETHPoW, a separatist Proof-of-Work (PoW) blockchain forked from Ethereum's Merge, went live on Sep. 15. However, the chain suffered technical issues after the launch, which put downward pressure on its ETHW token. 

ETHW price down 65% amid "ChainID" fiasco

The price of ETHW has dropped by 65% since ETHPoW's launch to around $14 on Sep. 16, according to CoinMarketCap. At its lowest, the token was changing hands for $9.50.

ETHW price performance in the past seven days. Source: CoinMarketCap

The losses coincided with a technical issues related to ETHPoW's ChainID."

ChainIDs are identifiers that help users identify one blockchain from another. Thus, ETHPoW required a new ChainID to separate its transaction data from the original Ethereum blockchain after the Merge, otherwise, it risked creating duplicate transactions.

The team behind ETHPoW announced on Sep. 15 that its unique ChainID is 10001. However, data from Chainlist shows that a cryptocurrency project called Smart Bitcoin Cash, operating under the ticker BCHT, had the same ID. This issue resulted in errors on the Metamask cryptocurrency wallet.

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Bitcoin price threatens $19.6K as Ray Dalio predicts 30% stocks crash

Bitcoin (BTC) attempted to violate local lows on Sep. 16 as the latest cross-crypto downtrend intensified.

BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

No relief for BTC bulls post Merge

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD approaching $19,600 at the time of writing, with buyer support just avoiding a further drop.

The level had remained in place as an intraday floor as the Ethereum Merge concluded, only to spark a sell-off, which took Ether (ETH)/BTC toward three-week lows.

ETH/BTC 1-day candle chart (Binance). Source: TradingView

Amid the gloomy mood, traders and analysts showed little inclination to reassess their market outlooks.

“I feel confident with the scenario of quick pump to 23k on BTC and 1800 on ETH and big dump from there,” Il Capo of Crypto wrote, reiterating a long-held theory:

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Dogecoin becomes second largest PoW cryptocurrency

Following the Ethereum Merge, Dogecoin now only trails Bitcoin as the biggest proof-of-work cryptocurrency.

Gamers want fun, not a grind fest for tokens — Animoca subsidiary

Once blockchain games can offer a similar experience to League of Legends or Fortnite they will become more popular, argues Blowfish Studios' Luke Sillay.

'Green ETH' narrative to drive investment and adoption, says pundits

Post-Merge Ethereum has now detached itself from the “crypto mining is bad for the environment” narrative, following its transition to proof-of-stake.

Most of the crypto market is down, but Cosmos (ATOM) price is up — Why?

The Ethereum Merge has finally happened. It’s over, and fortunately it went smoothly without any major hiccups. As predicted by many, the event turned out to be a “buy the rumor sell the news” style event, or perhaps, the hotter-than-expected consumer price index print on Sept. 12 was the real catalyst that pushed the market in its current direction. 

Regardless of the reasons for this week’s downturn, the Merge is over and in its wake, bulls are left holding a whole lot of nothing. It’s likely that a new bullish narrative will need to emerge, or analysts will need to keep a close eye on smart money to see what assets they elect to rotate into.

Remember, “The Merge,” according to so many “smart” people, was meant to be a bullish event that would possibly send Ether price higher and the treasure trove of hardfork ETH POW tokens was meant to magically materialize multi-billions of dollars in liquidity which would likely inflow to Bitcoin and help the ailing asset to break out of its current range.

Well, none of that happened. It’s not to say that it won’t happen, but the current reality is a market painted in a bright shade of red. Bitcoin’s Sept.15 drop below $20,000, induced a market-wide correction resulting in double-digit losses for a majority of altcoins and at the moment, there isn’t an easily graspable story for investors to interpret as bullish.

Not everything is dumping

There does happen to be an outlier, and its name is Cosmos (ATOM). To the surprise of some, it’s one of the few green assets on the charts on Merge day. Currently, the altcoin reflects a 9.4% gain and it has rebounded strongly off its Sept.14 low at $13.19.

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South Korean prosecutors apply to revoke Do Kwon and other Terra employees' passports

Singapore, where Terra co-founder Do Kwon is currently staying, does not have an extradition treaty with South Korea.

Merge is 'a step in the right direction' to address crypto's energy usage — Rostin Behnam

The CFTC chair said that the Ethereum blockchain’s transition to proof-of-stake, despite reducing energy usage by more than 99%, may not go far enough in resolving the problem.

Bitcoin price loses $20K, ETH price drops 8% after 'monumental' Ethereum Merge

Bitcoin (BTC) spent a second day threatening $20,000 support on Sept. 15 as markets processed the Ethereum (ET Merge.

BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

BTC stuck between price magnets'

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD spiking below $20,000 again overnight to recover marginally above the boundary for a brief period.

The largest cryptocurrency broadly failed to regain lost ground after surprise United States inflation data on Sep. 13 sent risk assets into a tailspin.

Down 13.5% versus the week’s top at the time of writing, Bitcoin offered little inspiration to traders who were still eyeing further losses.

“Bullish above or after a reclaim of $20,800 or something like this and maybe up,” popular trader Crypto Ed summarized in his latest YouTube update.

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FTX, Bybit among the first exchanges to launch spot ETHW trading

Bybit officially announced that it launched ETHW trading against the USDT stablecoin, planning to soon open ETHW deposits and withdrawals.

Powers On… Insider trading with crypto is targeted — Finally! Part 2

"Frankly, it’s about time that the SEC and U.S. attorney’s offices focused on real crimes and fraud."