Decentral Block Post

Bitcoin (BTC) faced a 9% correction in the early hours of Sept. 19 as the price traded down to $18,270. Even though the price quickly bounced back above $19,000, this level was the lowest price seen in three months. However, pro traders held their ground and were not inclined to take the loss, as measured by derivatives contracts.

Pinpointing the rationale behind the crash is extremely difficult, but some say United States President Joe Biden's interview on CBS "60 Minutes" raised concerns about global warfare. When responding to whether U.S. forces would defend Taiwan in the event of a China-led invasion, Biden replied: "Yes, if in fact, there was an unprecedented attack."

Others cite China's central bank lowering the borrowing cost of 14-day reverse repurchase agreements to 2.15% from 2.25%. The monetary authority is showing signs of weakness in the current market conditions by injecting more money to stimulate the economy amid inflationary pressure.

There is also pressure from the upcoming U.S. Federal Reserve Committee meeting on Sept. 21, which is expected to hike interest rates by 0.75% as central bankers scramble to ease the inflationary pressure. As a result, yields on the 5-year Treasury notes soared to 3.70%, the highest level since November 2007.

Let's look at crypto derivatives data to understand whether professional investors changed their position while Bitcoin crashed below $19,000.

$20,000 is no longer support.

$100,000 didn’t happen.

The Bitcoin halving is 562 days away.

Bears simply refuse to release their vice grip on the market and the Federal Reserve’s policy of interest rate hikes and quantitative tightening is adding fuel to the fire.

Despite these challenges, in a Sept. 15 Twitter Space hosted by Cointelegraph, Capriole Fund founder Charles Edwards explained why he is still bullish on Bitcoin.

Ripple (XRP) price was wobbling between profits and losses on Sept. 19 despite hopes that Ripple would eventually win its long-running legal battle against the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

Fed spoils SEC vs. Ripple euphoria

The XRP/USD pair dropped by over 1% to $0.35 while forming extremely sharp bullish and bearish wicks on its Sept. 19 daily candlestick. In other words, its intraday performance hinted at a growing bias conflict among traders.

The indecisiveness could be due to XRP's exposure to catalysts other than the SEC vs. Ripple lawsuit. Namely, the Federal Reserve's potential to increase its benchmark interest rates by another 75 or 100 basis points in their policy meeting on Sept. 20.

As Cointelegraph reported, fears of aggressive rate hikes have pressured the crypto market lower throughout the year, including Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH). XRP is also not immune, given the token's consistently positive correlation with Bitcoin since October 2021.

For instance, XRP's daily correlation coefficient with Bitcoin on Sep. 19 was 0.47. A reading of 1 means that the two assets move in lockstep.  

Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum's native token, Ether (ETH), started the week on a depressive note as investors braced themselves for a flurry of rate hike decisions from central banks, including the U.S. Federal Reserve and Bank of England.

Bitcoin price fails to hold $20,000

On Sep. 19, BTC's price has failed to regain the $20,000 psychological support zone. The BTC/USD pair slipped by 6.5% to around $18,250, while ETH dropped 4% to approximately $1,280.

Their gloomy performance came as a part of a broader decline that started in mid-August, wherein BTC and ETH wiped a total of 28% and 37% off their market valuation, respectively.

A 500 bps global rate hike ahead?

This week, the Fed and a number of its global peers will potentially attack rising inflation by further raising interest rates.

Data compiled by Bloomberg suggests that the U.S. central bank, alongside Sweden's Riksbank, the Swiss National Bank, Norway's Norges Bank, the Bank of England, and others, will raise lending rates by a combined 500 basis points, or 5%.

Bitcoin (BTC) faces another week of “huge” macro announcements after the lowest weekly close since July.

After days of losses following the latest inflation data from the United States, BTC/USD, like altcoins and risk assets more broadly, has failed to recover.

The largest cryptocurrency has yet to flip $20,000 to convincing support, and as the third full week of September begins, the danger is once again that that level could function as resistance.

The bulls have plenty to worry about — the coming days will see the Federal Reserve decide on the next key rate hike, something that will affect the market far beyond mere sentiment.

In addition, the aftermath of the Ethereum Merge continues to play out, while at defunct exchange Mt. Gox, reimbursements to creditors add another potential cloud to the Bitcoin price landscape.

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite index suffered their worst weekly performance since June as investors remain concerned that the Federal Reserve will have to continue with its aggressive monetary policy to curb inflation and that could lead to a recession in the United States.

Bitcoin (BTC) remains closely correlated to the S&P 500 and is on track to fall more than 9% this week. If this correlation continues, it could bring more pain to the cryptocurrency markets because Goldman Sachs strategist Sharon Bell cautioned that aggressive rate hikes could trigger a 26% fall in the S&P 500.

The majority expect the Fed to hike rates by 75 basis points in the next meeting on Sept. 20 to Sept. 21 but the FedWatch Tool shows an 18% probability of a 100 basis point rate hike. This uncertainty could keep traders on the edge, resulting in heightened short-term volatility.

If the Fed’s rate hike is in line with market expectations, select cryptocurrencies could attract buyers. Let’s study the charts of five cryptocurrencies that are positive in the near term.

BTC/USDT

Bitcoin recovered from $19,320 on Sept. 16 and rallied above $20,000 on Sept. 17 but the bulls are struggling to sustain the higher levels. This suggests that bears are active at higher levels.

A sequence of macro warnings coming out of the Goldman Sachs camp puts Bitcoin (BTC) at a risk of crashing to $12,000.

Bitcoin in "bottom phase?"

A team of Goldman Sachs economists led by Jan Hatzius raised their prediction for the speed of Federal Reserve benchmark rate hikes. They noted that the U.S. central bank would increase rates by 0.75% in September and 0.5% in November, up from their previous forecast of 0.5% and 0.25%, respectively.

Fed's rate-hike path has played a key role in determining Bitcoin's price trends in 2022. The period of higher lending rates — from near zero to the 2.25-2.5% range now — has prompted investors to rotate out of riskier assets and seek shelter in safer alternatives like cash.

Bitcoin has dropped by almost 60% year-to-date and is now wobbling around its psychological support of $20,000. Some analysts, including a pseudonymous trader Doctor Profit, believe BTC's price has entered the bottom phase at current levels. However, the trader warned:

"Please consider FEDs next decisions. 0.75% [rate hike] already priced in, 1% and we see blood."

Dogecoin (DOGE) may be back in the top-ten cryptocurrency by market capitalization, but its loses in both USD and Bitcoin (BTC) terms since Elon Musk's SNL appearance are considerable.

Dogecoin loses Musk-effect

The DOGE/BTC trading pair has fallen 75% after peaking out at 1,287 satoshis on May 9, 2021, a day after Musk was a guest host on Saturday Night Live, including a sketch titled “The Dogefather.”

Before his appearance, the billionaire entrepreneur was relentlessly tweeting Dogecoin memes, images, which helped DOGE — a cryptocurrency that started out as a joke — to attain a market capitalization north of $90 billion in May 2021.

That's more than 36,000% gains in just two years. But things have gone downhill ever since. 

Investors reflected hopes that even an optimistic wink from Musk on SNL toward DOGE would prompt his 106 million followers to buy the meme-token. But Musk did an unforeseeable thing: he called Dogecoin a "hustle."

BNB, the native token of Binance’s BNB Chain, entered a symmetrical triangle formation on Aug. 10, when it first faced the descending trendline at the $335 resistance. The following five weeks have been a struggle around $280, the exact intersection between the two conflicting ascending and descending patterns.

A decision on whether the symmetrical triangle will break to the upside or downside is expected by Sept. 30, when the trendlines cross. Currently holding a $45 billion total market capitalization, BNB Chain token has outperformed the broader altcoin market by 15% over the past three months.

The latest breakthrough in BNB Chain development was announced on Sept. 7, after the project introduced zero-knowledge (ZK) proof scaling privacy technology. The testnet is expected for November, aiming for faster finality and reduced transaction fees. Ethereum mastermind Vitalik Buterin also wants to implement a similar solution for the Ethereum network and he highlighted the importance of ZK in late 2021.

BNB Chain's Ethereum-compatible network is fully functional, hosting decentralized applications (DApps), including decentralized exchanges (DEXs), games, collateralized loan services, social networks, yield aggregators and NFT marketplaces.

A decline in price deposits could be a red flag

Despite currently being 60% below its -time high, BNB remains the third largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization ranking, excluding stablecoins. Moreover, the network holds $6.6 billion worth of deposits locked on smart contracts, a term known as total value locked, in the industry.