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Bitcoin (BTC) traders remain sensitive even to small price movements as data shows liquidations climbing.

As BTC/USD approaches $21,600 on March 9, those who are long BTC are seeing positions evaporate.

Longs begin to disappear with BTC at three-week lows

Despite consensus forming around Bitcoin retesting $20,000, small shifts in price are still taking a toll on traders.

According to data from monitoring resource Coinglass, March 8 saw $24.4 million of BTC longs liquidated — the highest tally in almost a week.

This coincided with BTC/USD heading to three-week lows, abandoning $22,000 as support. The downtrend continues at the time of writing, while liquidations for the day remain negligible.

Bitcoin’s price (BTC) fell below a four-day narrow trading range near $22,400 on March 7 following comments by U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell as he sat before a Senate banking committee. During the congressional appearance, the Fed chairman warned that the bank is prepared to tame inflation by pushing for more significant interest rate increases.

Fed Chair Powell added that "the ultimate level of interest rates is likely to be higher than previously anticipated," and that recent economic data was "stronger than expected." These remarks significantly increased investors' expectations of a 50 basis point interest rate hike on March 22, putting pressure on risk assets such as stocks, commodities, and Bitcoin.

That movement could explain why the $565 million Bitcoin weekly options expiry on March 10 will almost certainly favor bears. Nonetheless, additional negative crypto market events might have also played a significant role.

Bitcoin from the Silk Road and Mt. Gox are on the move

The movement of multiple wallets linked to U.S. law enforcement seizures on March 8 added to the price pressure on Bitcoin investors. Over 50,000 Bitcoin worth $1.1 billion were transferred, according to data shared by on-chain analytics firm PeckShield.

Furthermore, 9,860 BTC were sent to Coinbase, raising concerns about the coins being sold on the open market. These wallets are directly linked to the former Silk Road darknet marketplace and were seized by law enforcement in November 2021.

Like it or not, for crypto investors, the U.S. Federal Reserve policy on interest rate hikes and high inflation is the single most relevant measure for gauging demand for risk assets. By increasing the cost of capital, the Fed boosts the profitability of fixed-income instruments, but this is detrimental to the stock market, real estate, commodities and cryptocurrencies.

One positive aspect of the Fed's meetings is that they are scheduled well in advance, so Bitcoin (BTC) traders can prepare for those. Federal Reserve policy decisions historically cause extreme intraday volatility in risk assets, but traders can use derivatives instruments to yield optimal results as the Fed adjusts interest rates.

Another challenge for traders is they face pressure from Bitcoin being highly correlated to equities. For example, the 50-day correlation coefficient versus the S&P 500 futures has been running above 70% since Feb. 7. Although it does not state cause and consequence, it is evident that cryptocurrency investors are waiting for the direction of traditional markets.

It's also possible that Bitcoin's low emissions could prove to be a benefit as investors realize that the FED is running out of options to curb inflation. By raising interest rates even further, it could cause the U.S. government's debt repayments to spiral out of control and eventually surpass $1 trillion annually. This creates a huge incentive for Bitcoin bulls, but extreme caution is needed by those willing to make trades based on interest rate hikes.

Risk takers could benefit from buying Bitcoin futures contracts to leverage their positions, but they could also be liquidated if a sudden negative price move occurs ahead of the FED's decision on March 22. For this reason, pro traders are more likely to opt for options trading strategies such as the skewed iron condor.

Bitcoin (BTC) fell to three-week lows on March 8 as stronger-than-expected employment data from the United States dampened risk assets.

Employment stats boost Fed hawks, BTC price dips

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD dipping to $21,858 on Bitstamp.

The pair was attempting to preserve $22,000 as support at the time of writing, with traders’ downside targets still a way off at $21,300.

“Bitcoin not showing the strength I initially wanted to see (slight bounce yesterday taking place),” Cointelegraph contributor Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading firm Eight, summarized.

“In that case, looking for some more downwards momentum towards a sweep of the lows at $21.2K before a bounce takes place. If we want $30K, flip $23K is necessary.”

On March 8, addresses linked to the United States government moved 49,000 Bitcoin seized from the Silk Road, worth $1 billion. The transfer was accompanied by Bitcoin’s (BTC) price slipping below $22,000 and a noticeable spike in a key holder metric.

But does this mean that traders should brace for potential BTC price volatility ahead?

Bitcoin’s CDD metric suddenly spikes

The BTC transfer likely caused a significant spike in Glassnode’s coin days destroyed (CDD) metric. It measures the weighted movement of Bitcoin based on the time it was last moved from an address.

The CDD is calculated by multiplying the amount of Bitcoin transferred by the number of days since BTC was last added to an address.

A spike in the CDD indicator usually precedes price volatility, with the bears typically having a slight advantage. Some long-term investors, however, may also move Bitcoin to leverage it for more upside gains on the futures market.

Bitcoin (BTC) exchange Coinbase has remained a firm “buy” for ARK Invest throughout its recent price drop.

The latest data shows ARK continuing to buy Coinbase shares despite bankruptcy concerns over  Silvergate Bank — a major Coinbase partner.

ARK ETF keeps topping up on Coinbase stock

In the latest demonstration of its fearless approach to the crypto space, ARK purchased another 47,568 shares of Coinbase on March 7.

This adds to the roughly 6 million shares already held in ARK’s ARKK exchange-traded fund (ETF) at the start of the month, and is already its third purchase of the week.

Coinbase has been under pressure since the start of February, dropping from local highs of $87.50 to current levels of $61.69 — a decrease of almost 30% in just over a month, according to data from TradingView.

The price of Ether (ETH) declined 6% between March 2-3, followed by a tight range trading near $1,560. Still, analyzing a wider time frame provides no clear trend, as its chart can point to a descending channel or a slightly longer seven-week bullish pattern.

Ether's recent lack of volatility can be partially explained by the upcoming Shanghai hard fork, an implementation aimed at allowing ETH staking withdrawals. Those participants were each required to lock 32 ETH staked on the Beacon Chain to support the network consensus protocol.

After a series of delays, typical for changes in the production environment, the Shanghai Capella upgrade — also known as Shapella — is expected for early April, according to Ethereum core developer and project coordinator Tim Beiko. The Goerli testnet upgrade on March 14 will be the final rehearsal for the Shanghai hard fork before it is rolled out on the mainnet.

Recession risks increase, favoring ETH bears

On the macroeconomic front, United States Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell testified before the Senate Banking Committee on March 7. Powell stated that interest rates will likely rise higher than anticipated after "the latest economic data have come in stronger than expected."

Evidence points to the Fed lipping behind the inflation curve, boosting the odds of harder-than-expected interest rate increases and asset sales by the monetary authority. For instance, an inflation "surprise" index from Citigroup rose in February for the first time in more than 12 months.